Friday, January 30, 2026

STI Snapshot (15–30 Jan 2026): Breadth Improves as Banks and Property Lead, While REITs Wait on Rates

Across the 10 STI snapshots that I have data for from 15 Jan to 30 Jan 2026, the tape stayed constructive but it looked more like an orderly climb than a broad-based surge. Eighteen of the 30 constituents ended the window higher, while 11 fell and one was flat. The average constituent price change came in at about +0.9 per cent over the period, with the median near +0.6 per cent, which points to steady but not euphoric gains.

Market breadth strengthened as the month progressed. About 76.7 per cent of constituents traded above their 50-day average on 15 Jan, rising to about 86.7 per cent by 30 Jan, while the share above their 200-day average stayed around 83.3 per cent. This pattern usually signals a market that keeps its underlying uptrend intact, even if individual leaders rotate and some late-month consolidation appears.

Macro headlines supported this “uptrend, then refocus on fundamentals” feel. Regional markets firmed after the US Federal Reserve held rates steady and investors shifted attention toward earnings visibility and AI-linked growth themes, while MAS kept Singapore’s monetary policy settings unchanged and raised its inflation forecasts. This backdrop tends to favour large, liquid STI names with clearer earnings paths, while rate-sensitive pockets such as REITs usually need either lower bond yields or clearer signals that funding costs have peaked before they re-rate meaningfully.

Within the STI, banks still anchored the index leadership, even if the pace varied day to day. DBS, OCBC and UOB remained close to their 52-week highs in the dataset by end-month, and broker targets continued to move higher after what the local press described as a record week. In the 15–30 Jan window, UOB and OCBC stood out for cleaner upside follow-through, while DBS looked more like a strong, higher-base hold near the $60 level that the market watched closely.

Property-linked names formed the other clear leadership cluster. UOL delivered the strongest price trend across the window, and CapitaLand Investment also rose strongly. The timing matched catalysts flagged by brokers, including a JPMorgan upgrade and commentary that upcoming updates could act as additional triggers. This matters because when a cyclical sector leads while overall breadth improves, the market often signals that it sees growth holding up, rather than merely hiding in defensives.

REITs, by contrast, looked more like “income on hold” than “momentum”. Several large REITs kept attractive forward yields in the dataset, but price action ranged from flat to mildly negative over the same window, which is consistent with investors still balancing yield appeal against rate and refinancing uncertainty. The local narrative also leaned toward a more constructive REIT setup if interest rates ease further, because REIT distributions had already absorbed the higher cost of debt over the past few years. In the snapshots, this showed up as REIT yields that stayed high while prices did not chase, suggesting the market still demanded clearer confirmation on the rate path.

The main laggards also told a coherent story. Seatrium fell sharply and ended the window below both its 50-day and 200-day averages in the dataset, which fits a risk-off response to unresolved overhangs such as arbitration-linked claims reported locally. Singapore Airlines also sat close to its 52-week low in the data and stayed below longer-term averages, reinforcing that travel-linked names did not participate in the late-month strengthening breadth.

Against that backdrop, it is only possible to talk about “may rise” candidates as a screening exercise, not a prediction. In this data window, the cleanest momentum set combined positive trendlines with prices above both 50-day and 200-day averages, led by UOL, Wilmar, CapitaLand Investment, UOB and OCBC. For these names, follow-through in the coming weeks usually depends on whether catalysts continue to land (for example, updates, results guidance and sector news) and whether the macro tone stays supportive rather than abruptly risk-off.

A second, more conditional group sat closer to 52-week lows but showed traits that can support a rebound if rates and sentiment cooperate. Mapletree Industrial Trust, for instance, remained relatively close to its 52-week low in the dataset while still sitting above its medium- and long-term averages, which can attract incremental buyers when income becomes the priority again. Frasers Centrepoint Trust also sat near its 52-week low with a high indicated forward yield, but it stayed below key moving averages in the snapshots, so it looked more like a “watchlist income candidate” than a confirmed turn. The REIT angle, in other words, still looked like it needed the interest-rate narrative to do some work before price momentum follows.

From a portfolio-construction lens, the screen supported a barbell between “core quality” and “satellite opportunity”, assuming the investor accepts that this remains a short-window, market-data-driven view. For core holdings, the dataset continued to favour the big banks (DBS, UOB, OCBC) because they stayed near highs and above long-term averages, while names such as Singtel and Keppel provided diversification with more defensive cashflow profiles. The core sleeve can add an income anchor like CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust if the investor is comfortable with rate sensitivity, given its relatively high forward yield in the snapshots, but it still behaves as a rates-and-credit spread instrument as much as a pure equity.

For satellite holdings, the window highlighted UOL and CapitaLand Investment as the clearer “narrative plus price trend” ideas because broker upgrades and sector catalysts aligned with rising prices. A selective AI-linked infrastructure angle also appeared in the headlines, with Sembcorp’s Micron-related power supply news showing how the market can quickly reward credible demand visibility, even when a stock is still working back toward its longer-term averages in the data. Satellites should stay smaller by design, because they carry higher headline risk and often need catalysts to keep momentum alive.

Overall, this 15–30 Jan 2026 STI screen suggested that the market rewarded earnings visibility and credible catalysts, while pushing the more uncertain stories (legal overhangs, weaker trend, or more macro-sensitive cashflows) to the side. If breadth remains high and rates stay stable-to-lower, the leaders can extend, but the most sensible expectation from this snapshot set is continued rotation rather than a straight-line rally, with stock selection doing more work than the index.


If you want to do your own analysis, you can get the data I used for the price of a cup of kopi!  Here:


Saturday, January 24, 2026

SGX STI Investment Analysis: Mid-January Market Dynamics Signal Selective Buying Opportunities

SGX STI Investment Analysis: Mid-January Market Dynamics Signal Selective Buying Opportunities

Executive Summary

Analysis of the eight trading days which I have records for spanning 12 to 23 January 2026 reveals a differentiated market landscape wherein selective sectors display compelling entry points whilst others face headwinds. The STI constituents examined demonstrate price momentum concentrated within defensive dividend stocks, financial services, and defence-aerospace plays, with property and beverage stocks showing mixed signals. This commentary identifies three clear buy candidates and one avoid recommendation based on fundamental value, sector momentum, and catalyst visibility.

Market Trends and Price Momentum

The two-week observation period (12–23 January) captures a period of relative consolidation on the Straits Times Index, with constituent stocks oscillating within narrow trading bands. Sector performance diverged significantly, with financial services and selective industrials advancing whilst consumer discretionary stocks retreated. Real estate investment trusts (REITs) remained range-bound, reflecting the uncertain interest-rate outlook for the first quarter.

The most notable price action emerged from City Developments Limited (C09.SI), which appreciated 3.7 per cent from SGD 8.88 to SGD 9.21, signalling renewed investor interest in Singapore property despite headwinds from rising supply. Similarly, DFS Retail Group Holdings Limited (D01.SI) advanced 3.0 per cent to SGD 4.08, demonstrating the continued appeal of dividend-yielding defensive stocks. CapitaLand Investment Limited (9CI.SI) posted a 4.5 per cent gain to SGD 3.05, suggesting cautious optimism within the real estate services sector.

Conversely, telecommunications stocks exhibited volatility. Singapore Telecommunications Limited (Z74.SI) retreated marginally to SGD 4.44 despite stronger underlying fundamentals, reflecting sector-wide profit-taking and portfolio rebalancing. Yangzijiang Shipbuilding Holdings Limited (BS6.SI) declined 4.7 per cent from its 12 January opening, suggesting profit-taking after recent strength despite record operational margins.

Key Findings: Sector-by-Sector Assessment

Financial Services: Strong Relative Positioning

DBS Group Holdings Limited (D05.SI) exhibited pronounced strength, advancing from SGD 57.87 to a peak of SGD 59.12 before settling at SGD 58.65 by 23 January. The trailing price-to-earnings ratio of 15.0 to 15.12 remains reasonable relative to historical norms, whilst the dividend yield of 5.0 to 5.1 per cent underscores management's confidence in earnings generation. DBS's 2026 earnings are projected to expand at 8.8 per cent, reflecting robust loan demand, rising net interest margins, and digital banking momentum across Southeast Asia. The bank is well positioned to capture upside from anticipated monetary policy easing later in the year, as lower refinancing costs should support margin expansion and credit growth. DBS maintains significant scale advantages over regional competitors and continues to invest in artificial intelligence and cybersecurity capabilities.

Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation Limited (O39.SI) similarly presented compelling value, with a forward dividend yield of 4.6 per cent and a trailing price-to-earnings multiple of 12.28, the lowest among the "Big Three" banks. However, elevated non-performing loan ratios require careful monitoring given the uncertain macroeconomic outlook.

Telecommunications: Consolidation Tailwind Emerging

Singapore Telecommunications Limited (Z74.SI) represents one of the most compelling accumulation opportunities within the current market environment, despite near-term price volatility. The sector is transitioning from a period of intense price competition towards a more rational, consolidation-driven phase. DBS Bank research forecasts core EBITDA growth of approximately 5 per cent per annum through FY28, compared with 4 per cent for regional peers, driven by three structural catalysts.

First, Singtel's data centre capacity in Singapore is doubling to 120 megawatts with the opening of the Jurong data centre in early 2026. This expansion positions the company to monetise the region's insatiable appetite for cloud computing capacity and edge computing infrastructure. The data centre business commands higher margins than mobile services and provides revenue diversification away from consumer broadband competition.

Second, mobile average revenue per user (ARPU) is expected to stabilise in mid-2026 and recover by approximately 10 per cent over the subsequent two years. Singapore's blended mobile ARPU has declined 36 to 41 per cent since 2017, creating a substantial recovery opportunity as industry consolidation prevents further erosion. Current pricing is 15 to 40 per cent below developed-market Asian peers, suggesting meaningful upside.

Third, Singtel continues to expand its associate company National Computer Systems (NCS) and Optus in Australia, both of which contribute earnings with more stable growth profiles than the domestic mobile business. Together, these catalysts justify a re-rating from the current 5.0 times forward enterprise value-to-EBITDA to 7.0 times, the regional average, implying 40 per cent capital appreciation potential.

The current trailing price-to-earnings ratio of 12.05 and forward yield of 2.9 per cent offer the patient investor an attractive entry point ahead of these structural improvements.

Aviation: Recovery Story with Capacity Constraints

Singapore Airlines Limited (C6L.SI) closed the observation period at SGD 6.41 to SGD 6.43, representing a holding pattern amidst broader market optimism. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) projects Asia-Pacific airlines will record net profit of USD 6.6 billion in 2026, a 6.5 per cent increase from 2025, despite ongoing challenges from overcapacity and yield compression.

Singapore Airlines' first-half FY2025/26 results, announced on 13 November 2025, painted a nuanced picture. Group revenue reached an all-time high of SGD 9.7 billion, propelled by strong air travel demand that drove passenger traffic growth of 4.6 per cent. However, the group's net profit plummeted 67.9 per cent to SGD 238.5 million, primarily due to share-of-losses from associate Air India rather than operational deterioration. Excluding one-off accounting impacts, the airline's underlying profitability remained stable.

Most critically, the group's operating profit expanded 0.9 per cent to SGD 802.9 million, indicating that core business momentum remains intact despite yield headwinds of 2.9 per cent. Longer-term, industry observers anticipate that capacity discipline and pent-up leisure demand will support pricing power. Singapore Airlines' forward dividend of SGD 0.35 per share generates a yield of 5.45 per cent, significantly above the risk-free rate, and reflects management's conviction regarding sustainable cash generation.

The airline is well positioned to capture upside from the anticipated 4.4 per cent expansion in passenger volumes forecast by IATA, as its high-quality service proposition commands a pricing premium within the region. Forward earnings visibility extends three to six quarters, providing investors with visibility through the cyclical upswing.

Property and REITs: Balanced Outlook Amid Supply Expansion

The Singapore property sector is entering a more balanced phase in 2026, characterised by rising supply but stable demand from owner-occupiers and investors. The Housing and Development Board will launch approximately 35,300 Build-to-Order flats through 2026 and 2027, compared with approximately 19,700 in 2025, nearly doubling the pipeline. Concurrently, government land sales are expected to reveal developers' confidence regarding market fundamentals.

CapitaLand Investment Limited (9CI.SI) appreciated 4.5 per cent to SGD 3.05 during the observation period, reflecting anticipation of earnings improvements as rental reversions accelerate. The company's forward dividend yield of 4.1 per cent and payout ratio of 1.38 suggest that management expects sustainable earnings growth. However, the trailing price-to-earnings multiple of 32.44 appears stretched, warranting selectivity. Investors should expect moderate earnings growth of 2 to 4 per cent through 2026 as occupancy stabilises and spot rents stabilise relative to renewal rents.

CapitaLand Ascendas REIT (A17U.SI) maintains an attractive valuation of 17.88 times trailing earnings with a dividend yield of 5.3 per cent, supported by portfolio occupancy of 95.9 per cent and rental reversions of 12.3 per cent. The REIT's focus on Grade-A industrial properties positions it to benefit from structural trends including nearshoring, supply-chain localisation, and e-commerce logistics expansion.

Frasers Centrepoint Trust (J69U.SI) and other retail-focused REITs face secular headwinds from continuing e-commerce penetration, mitigated partially by tourism recovery and domestic consumption resilience. The current yield of 5.3 per cent provides a floor for valuation, but capital appreciation is unlikely unless retail sales growth re-accelerates.

Defence and Aerospace: Strategic Catalysts Emerging

Singapore Technologies Engineering Ltd (S63.SI) posted a modest 1.6 per cent advance to SGD 9.36, masking the significance of the company's announced SGD 250 million artificial intelligence programme. The flagship initiative, the Manned-Unmanned Teaming Operating System (MUMTOS), represents a cyber-secured artificial intelligence command-and-control platform designed to integrate physical artificial intelligence with sensors, communications infrastructure, and unmanned assets at scale.

The trailing price-to-earnings multiple of 39.0 appears elevated in isolation, but the forward price-to-earnings of 29.29 more accurately reflects the growth trajectory ahead. The company's return on equity of 26.98 per cent ranks among Singapore's highest, demonstrating operational excellence and capital-allocation discipline. DBS Bank equity analysts identify Singapore Technologies Engineering as a top pick within the aviation sector, with catalysts including the artificial intelligence programme expansion, higher defence spending across Southeast Asia, and potential international licensing of its unmanned systems technology.

The company's dividend yield of 1.85 per cent is modest relative to the broader market, but the strong free cash flow generation of SGD 577 million suggests scope for capital returns to accelerate as major projects complete.

Shipbuilding: Record Margins and Order Book Strength

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding Holdings Limited (BS6.SI) declined 4.7 per cent to SGD 3.48 during the observation period, representing a pullback from recent strength. However, the fundamental backdrop has strengthened materially. The company reported record shipbuilding gross margins of 35 per cent in the half-year ended 30 June 2025, coupled with net profit expansion and the addition of 22 new shipbuilding contracts worth approximately USD 0.92 billion for delivery between 2027 and 2029.

These contracts meaningfully extend the company's order book visibility into the next decade, reducing earnings volatility and enhancing execution confidence. The current price-to-earnings ratio of 10.14 is substantially below the historical average, suggesting the market has yet to fully incorporate the margin improvement and contract strength. Near-term catalysts include contract flow announcements, margin sustainability confirmation, and capital returns.

However, investors must acknowledge the cyclical nature of the shipbuilding industry and sensitivity to changes in global shipping demand. The company's free cash flow-to-market capitalisation ratio of 19.19 per cent is attractive, though non-cash earnings quality (particularly from shipbuilding contracts) requires careful monitoring.

Consumer Defensive: Thai Beverage Faces Headwinds

Thai Beverage Public Company Limited (Y92.SI) advanced 4.3 per cent to SGD 0.48 during the observation period, delivering one of the strongest absolute returns. However, the fundamental picture has deteriorated markedly. Fitch Ratings revised the company's outlook to negative from stable in December 2025, citing concerns about high leverage that exceeded 4.1 times EBITDA at fiscal year-end 2025, materially above management's target of below 3.5 times.

Analyst consensus expects revenue growth to decelerate to 4.2 per cent in calendar 2026, substantially below the company's historical 8.8 per cent per annum, reflecting weak consumer sentiment in Thailand and Vietnam, delayed tourism recovery, and exposure to Myanmar's political uncertainty. Fitch forecasts leverage will remain above 3.5 times through fiscal 2026, raising downgrade risk should the company fail to execute debt reduction plans.

Whilst the trailing dividend yield of 134.8 per cent (reflecting very low earnings) may attract yield-focused investors, the quality of earnings has deteriorated, and the dividend faces cutting risk should leverage fail to decline. The company's planned acquisition of an additional stake in Vinamilk raises capital-allocation concerns amidst the deleveraging imperative. Investors should avoid position accumulation until debt metrics improve demonstrably.

Analyst Commentary and Valuation Perspective

Examining the broader analyst consensus and valuation metrics reveals a market bifurcated between expensive growth stocks and under-valued recovery plays. The forward price-to-earnings multiple for the broader STI remains elevated at 16.0 times relative to 10-year history, suggesting that investors are pricing in material earnings acceleration that may be difficult to achieve in a modest 1.8 per cent GDP growth environment.

However, within this context, pockets of genuine value persist. The financials sector, trading at 15.2 times forward earnings against a backdrop of 8.8 per cent earnings growth, offers an attractive risk-reward. Similarly, telecommunications trades at a significant discount to its regional peer average, offering optionality on sector consolidation benefits.

Dividend yields of 4.5 per cent on average across STI constituents remain attractive relative to the risk-free rate approximated by Singapore Government Securities yields of 2.3 to 2.5 per cent. This spread compensates investors adequately for equity risk in a low-growth environment, provided earnings quality remains robust.

Investment Recommendations for the Next Four to Eight Weeks

Based on comprehensive analysis of price momentum, sector dynamics, analyst sentiment, and catalyst visibility, the following investment recommendations apply:

Buy Rating: DBS Group Holdings Limited (D05.SI). The trailing price-to-earnings of 15.0 is reasonable relative to 8.8 per cent earnings growth, whilst the dividend yield of 5.1 per cent provides downside protection. The bank benefits from anticipated interest-rate cuts, rising loan growth, and expanding net interest margins. No significant valuation downside risk exists at the current quotation.

Buy Rating: Singapore Airlines Limited (C6L.SI). The airline's forward dividend yield of 5.45 per cent is materially above the risk-free rate, supported by first-half revenue that reached an all-time high. Longer-term, aviation capacity constraints and leisure demand strength should support pricing recovery. The stock offers an attractive risk-adjusted return profile for the patient income investor.

Accumulate Rating: Singapore Telecommunications Limited (Z74.SI). The sector consolidation story, data centre capacity expansion, and mobile average-revenue-per-user stabilisation offer material re-rating catalysts. The current trailing price-to-earnings of 12.05 and forward yield of 2.9 per cent appear attractive relative to the structural improvements ahead. Investors should scale into positions rather than committing capital in one tranche.

Accumulate Rating: Yangzijiang Shipbuilding Holdings Limited (BS6.SI). Record shipbuilding margins, an enhanced order book extending into 2027–2029, and a price-to-earnings ratio substantially below historical norms create an attractive risk-reward. Investors should establish small initial positions and scale up on contract wins and margin confirmation. The dividend yield of 17.59 per cent, whilst exceptional, reflects the cyclical nature of the business; capital appreciation is the primary return driver.

Hold Rating: CapitaLand Investment Limited (9CI.SI) and CapitaLand Ascendas REIT (A17U.SI). Both stocks are fairly valued based on net asset value and dividend metrics, but limited near-term catalysts constrain upside. Investors holding these positions should maintain them, whilst new capital should be allocated to financial services and telecommunications on a relative-value basis.

Avoid Rating: Thai Beverage Public Company Limited (Y92.SI). Despite the attractive 134.8 per cent trailing dividend yield, the company's deteriorating earnings trajectory, elevated leverage above management's target, and negative credit-rating outlook argue for avoidance. The dividend faces cutting risk, and near-term capital appreciation potential is limited. Better-quality dividend stocks in the financial and utility sectors offer superior risk-adjusted returns.

Macroeconomic Context and Risk Factors

The Singapore equities market operates within a broader macroeconomic context of moderate growth, stable inflation, and anticipated interest-rate cuts. Gross Domestic Product growth is forecast at 1.8 per cent for 2026, approximately half the long-term average, reflecting subdued global trade growth at 0.5 per cent. Inflation is expected to ease to 3.7 per cent, providing monetary-policy flexibility.

However, several downside risks merit consideration. First, global trade tensions and potential tariff escalation could disrupt regional supply chains and weigh on export-oriented sectors. Second, real estate valuations in Singapore remain elevated by international standards, and any significant deterioration in household incomes or employment could trigger a repricing. Third, rising interest rates in developed markets could offset expectations for Singapore monetary easing, constraining domestic demand and credit growth.

Conclusion

The mid-January trading period for SGX STI constituents reveals a market environment wherein selective sectors present compelling entry opportunities, whilst others face structural headwinds. Financial services, telecommunications, and aviation stocks display the most attractive risk-reward profiles, supported by genuine catalysts and reasonable valuations. Property stocks remain fairly valued but face medium-term headwinds from rising supply.

Investors seeking equity exposure to Singapore should prioritise DBS Group Holdings, Singapore Airlines, and Singapore Telecommunications, scaled according to their risk tolerance and time horizon. Yangzijiang Shipbuilding offers a higher-conviction accumulation opportunity for investors comfortable with cyclicality. Thai Beverage and consumer stocks warrant avoidance until earnings quality and leverage metrics improve demonstrably.

The STI is well positioned to deliver 7 to 10 per cent total returns through 2026 for prudent investors who allocate capital methodically to higher-quality compounders, avoid value traps, and maintain discipline through the inevitable market volatility ahead.


References

Straits Times, "2026 outlook: What's next for property, and the top stories of 2025", 30 December 2025

Straits Times, "Rental market stabilises, with higher supply set to cap growth in 2026", 28 December 2025

The Smart Investor, "4 Singapore REITs to Watch in January 2026", 7 January 2026

Singapore Airlines, "SIA Group Analyst/Media Briefing: Key Highlights for 1H FY25/26", November 2025

International Air Transport Association, "Apac airlines to increase net profit by 6.5% to US$6.6 billion in 2026", 8 December 2025

Business Times, "SIA posts 82.1% drop in net profit to S$52 million for Q2", 12 November 2025

DBS Bank, "Regional 2026 Outlook: Tariffs resilience, policy support and valuation define 2026 performance", 12 January 2026

Funds SuperMart, "Non-bank, non-REIT constituents lead STI earnings growth in 2026", 22 January 2026

DBS Bank, "Singapore Telecommunications Ltd: Will the rally continue?", 11 December 2025

Maybank Research, "Singapore Telco Sector Set for Growth in 2026-2027", 5 September 2025

Simply Wall St, "Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (SGX:BS6) Is Up 5.2% After Record Margins And New Orders Boost Visibility", 13 January 2026

Fintel, "Yangzijiang Shipbuilding Holdings – Market Capitalisation", 21 January 2026

Moomoo, "Thai Beverage Public Company Limited Just Missed EPS", 29 November 2025

Poems Singapore, "Thai Beverage PLC: Challenging Operating Environment Amid External Pressures", 29 October 2025

Fitch Ratings, "Thai Beverage outlook revised to negative by Fitch, rating affirmed", 19 December 2025

Mordor Intelligence, "Singapore Telecom MNO Market Size & Share Analysis", 6 January 2026



If you want to do your own analysis, you can get the data I used for the price of a cup of kopi!  Here:




Sunday, January 18, 2026

STI Blue Chips, Mid-January 2026: Banks Stay Firm, Developers Lead While REITs Remain Mixed

Across the ten trading sessions from 5 to 16 January 2026, the STI constituents in this data set showed a broadly constructive tone. On an equal-weighted basis, the average daily return was positive on most days, adding up to roughly a 3.5 per cent gain over the period. Out of the 30 counters, 24 recorded a positive cumulative return, four declined slightly and two were essentially flat. Breadth therefore leaned clearly to the upside, with price weakness concentrated in a small cluster of names rather than across the whole index.

Leadership during this window came mainly from the property developers, selected industrials and the banks. Hongkong Land gained about 19 per cent with eight up days out of nine and traded consistently above its three-month average volume, ending the period only a little below its 52-week high. UOL advanced roughly 15 per cent with nine straight up days and the highest average volume uplift in the basket. City Developments added around 11 per cent over the ten sessions. Together, these moves suggest that investors continued to re-rate quality developers with discount-to-asset stories as the rate backdrop stabilised. Singapore Technologies Engineering also stood out, rising about 10 per cent, enjoying seven up days and actually touching its 52-week high by 16 January. Venture Corporation delivered a gain of about 8 per cent, with modestly above-average volumes and a forward yield above 4 per cent, which indicates steady interest in higher-quality electronics and manufacturing names rather than speculative small caps.

The three local banks maintained their leadership role but moved in a more measured fashion. DBS, OCBC and UOB all posted gains of roughly 2 to 4 per cent over the period, with seven up days each and fairly contained day-to-day volatility. DBS and OCBC now trade almost at their 52-week highs, while UOB sits only a few per cent below its peak. Forward dividend yields for the trio remain around 4 to 5 per cent, and their betas stay well below 1.0. This pattern indicates that the market continues to favour large, lower-beta income names as core positions, even as it rotates selectively into cyclicals and developers. Keppel, Seatrium and CapitaLand Investment also contributed to the positive tone, with small to mid-single-digit gains, slightly elevated turnover versus their three-month averages and prices sitting closer to 52-week highs than lows.

REITs in the basket remained mixed, but the data points to a quiet repair rather than fresh capitulation. Mapletree Logistics Trust, Mapletree Industrial Trust and CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust all clocked small positive returns over the ten sessions, with five or more up days and forward yields in the 5.8 to 7.5 per cent range. Their prices still sit well above recent 52-week lows but have not yet retested prior highs, which fits with the idea of a gradual normalisation as rate-cut expectations get priced in. By contrast, Frasers Centrepoint Trust slipped about 2 to 3 per cent and now trades slightly above its 52-week low, despite an indicated forward yield close to 8 per cent and free cash flow that nearly covers that payout. Keppel DC REIT and Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust were effectively flat over the period, offering mid-single-digit forward yields and moderate distance from their lows. Taken together, the REIT complex still looks yield-heavy and sensitive to any change in rate expectations, but there are signs that investors are differentiating more sharply between suburban retail, logistics, data-centre and pan-Asia exposure.

The main laggards during this period were Singapore Airlines, Thai Beverage, Frasers Centrepoint Trust and Singtel. Singapore Airlines and Thai Beverage both sit only a few per cent above their 52-week lows, with small negative cumulative returns over the ten sessions and volumes that were not meaningfully higher than their three-month averages. Yet both counters show forward dividend yields in the 4 to 5.5 per cent range, which suggests that the market is already pricing in a fair amount of caution around earnings normalisation for travel and consumer staples. Singtel also drifted lower by just under 1 per cent and trades well below its 52-week high, with a modest yield under 3 per cent and average volumes. Genting Singapore, while marginally positive, also remains close to its 52-week low with a high-single-digit yield, reflecting persistent scepticism about gaming and tourism-related earnings even as visitor numbers recover.

Looking ahead to the coming weeks, this ten-day snapshot cannot predict outcomes, but it does highlight where the market currently assigns momentum and where it sees value with risk attached. Continued strong price action, proximity to 52-week highs and above-average volumes in Hongkong Land, UOL, City Developments, ST Engineering, Venture, CapitaLand Investment, Keppel, Seatrium and the three banks suggest that investors still favour quality large-cap names with clear earnings visibility and acceptable dividends. If the macro backdrop in 2026 remains supportive, these counters may continue to attract incremental institutional and yield-seeking flows, although the recent run-up means that the margin of safety is narrower and any negative surprise from results or guidance could trigger pullbacks.

At the same time, several high-yield REITs such as CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust, Mapletree Logistics Trust, Mapletree Industrial Trust and even the weaker Frasers Centrepoint Trust offer forward yields in the 5.4 to almost 8.0 per cent range, with free cash flow generally supporting a large part of those distributions. Price behaviour over these ten sessions points to stabilisation rather than stress, which may appeal to income-oriented investors who can tolerate interest-rate and sector-specific risks. Finally, the small cluster of laggards near 52-week lows — particularly Singapore Airlines, Thai Beverage and Frasers Centrepoint Trust — may form a contrarian watchlist for investors who believe that current concerns around travel, consumption and selected retail assets are overly discounted. However, the fact that volumes in these names are not consistently elevated and that price trends are still soft means that any rebound case remains speculative and should be backed by deeper work on forthcoming earnings, balance-sheet strength and sector catalysts. Overall, the data set describes a market that rewards steady quality and selective cyclicals, while keeping a cautious stance on more volatile and rate-sensitive names.


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Thursday, January 15, 2026

SGX Market Rotation and Liquidity Trends (31 Dec 2025 – 15 Jan 2026)

Between 31 December 2025 and 15 January 2026, the overall SGX universe of 558 stocks showed a mild upward bias. On average, prices across the full list rose about 2 per cent, but the median move sat around zero, which suggests that gains were uneven and driven by a subset of counters rather than a broad rally. The more actively traded stocks did noticeably better. The 93 most liquid names in the “Top value” and “Top volume” lists rose about 4 per cent on average, roughly three times the average gain of the less-traded counters. In other words, money flowed into liquid large and mid caps rather than illiquid small caps.

Sector-wise, the data points to clear rotation. Among all 558 stocks, Basic Materials, Real Estate, Industrials, Technology and Healthcare showed the strongest average price gains over the period. Within the liquid group, Real Estate stood out with average gains of more than 10 per cent, followed by Healthcare, Energy, Consumer Cyclical and Technology. In contrast, Consumer Defensive, Utilities and Communication Services lagged, with small average declines. This pattern suggests that investors have been willing to take a bit more risk in property, cyclicals and selected growth names, while trimming defensive positions like telcos, utilities and some consumer staples.

The top-30 list by average daily trading value remained very stable. Twenty-eight of the previous top-30 counters by value stayed in the top-30 on 15 January. Only two counters, Ultragreen AI (ULG.SI) and DFI Retail (D01.SI), slipped out of the top-30 value list, although DFI remained within the top-60. Two new names, UMS (558.SI) and Frencken (E28.SI), climbed into the top-30 by trading value. This change, together with higher traded value in AEM (AWX.SI), points to fresh interest in semiconductor-related counters. On the volume side, most of the heavy-traded names also remained in place, with a handful of smaller, more speculative counters rotating in and out.

The three local banks continued to act as a steady anchor. DBS (D05.SI), UOB (U11.SI) and OCBC (O39.SI) rose about 3 to 4½ per cent over the period, with modest increases in both average trading value and volume. UOB currently trades on roughly a low double-digit price-to-earnings multiple, with an earnings yield close to 10 per cent and a forward dividend yield around 4½ per cent, while OCBC and DBS sit on mid-teens earnings multiples with forward yields around 4 to 5 per cent. Balance sheets remain strong, with modest or negative net debt-to-equity numbers. From the data alone, the banks still look reasonably priced for income investors, although each stock already trades closer to its 52-week highs than its lows. Further upside in the coming weeks would probably depend on continued confidence in the interest rate path and credit quality.

Property-related counters saw a strong resurgence. Hongkong Land (H78.SI), City Developments (C09.SI), UOL (U14.SI), CapitaLand Investment (9CI.SI) and PropNex (OYY.SI) all posted double-digit gains between 31 December and 15 January, with a sharp pickup in trading activity. CapitaLand Investment now trades at a higher earnings multiple but shows a positive free cash flow yield to market capitalisation and a forward dividend yield slightly above 4 per cent, supported by a moderate net debt-to-equity ratio. PropNex also shows decent cash generation and runs with a net cash position, though it now trades further above its 52-week low after a near 15 per cent rise. These property and property-service names may continue to do well if sentiment on the Singapore and regional property market stays constructive and if interest rate expectations remain benign, but after a strong two-week run, short-term consolidation would not be surprising.

Selected cyclicals and energy names also attracted capital. Seatrium (5E2.SI) gained about 6 per cent over the period, with both average daily value and volume rising more than 10 per cent. On this snapshot, Seatrium still looks expensive on a standard price-to-earnings view, but it shows a strong free cash flow yield to market capitalisation of around 10 per cent, with only moderate leverage and a small forward dividend yield below 1 per cent. This profile suits investors who are comfortable with project-cycle volatility and who prioritise free cash flow over headline dividends. In the plantation space, First Resources (EB5.SI) stands out as a contrarian idea. The counter fell about 6 per cent in the period, but it trades on a single-digit earnings multiple, with an earnings yield above 12 per cent and a forward dividend yield around 5 to 6 per cent. Its free cash flow reading in this short window is soft, and leverage is moderate, so any recovery would likely depend on palm oil prices and supply-demand dynamics rather than pure valuation.

Technology and semiconductor-related counters show early signs of renewed interest. Frencken (E28.SI), AEM (AWX.SI) and UMS (558.SI) all moved up the liquidity rankings, with Frencken and UMS entering the top-30 by trading value. Frencken rose about 17 per cent in the two-week period, with trading value and volume up more than 50 per cent. It trades on a high-teens price-to-earnings multiple, with a mid-single-digit earnings yield, positive free cash flow yield and a small dividend yield of below 2 per cent, plus a slight net cash position. AEM has also rallied strongly with increased turnover, but it trades on a much richer earnings multiple above 40 times in this snapshot and does not yet show a strong free cash flow yield; it is more of a pure growth and recovery story. UMS offers a mid-20s earnings multiple with a modest dividend yield above 2 per cent and a small net cash balance, but its free cash flow to market capitalisation is currently slightly negative. Based on the data, these semiconductor names appear to be in the early stages of a sentiment and liquidity recovery, which could extend if the global chip cycle and AI-related demand remain supportive, but their higher valuations also mean that price swings can be large in both directions.

Outside the banks and growth names, a few yield-oriented counters show a more balanced mix of income and cash flow. Riverstone (AP4.SI) offers a mid-teens earnings multiple, an earnings yield above 5 per cent, a very strong free cash flow yield in the low-teens range and a forward dividend yield around 5½ per cent, all supported by a clear net cash position. Singapore Exchange (S68.SI) and SIA Engineering (S59.SI) both carry higher earnings multiples in the mid-20s to high-20s range, with moderate dividend yields of 2 to 3 per cent and positive free cash flow yields, backed by net cash. In this short period, SGX rose about 4 per cent, while SIA Engineering slipped slightly despite improved liquidity. From the numbers alone, these three names look more like steady compounders and income plays rather than short-term trading ideas, though Riverstone’s combination of strong free cash flow and higher yield may draw attention from investors looking for defensive cash-rich businesses.

On balance, the data from 31 December 2025 to 15 January 2026 points to a market that is quietly constructive but selective. Liquidity has chased banks, property, semiconductors and selected cyclicals, while more defensive sectors have lagged. For investors thinking about what may rise in the coming weeks, the screens from these files point towards three broad groups: core financials such as the three local banks; property-linked names like CapitaLand Investment, City Developments, UOL and PropNex which have just enjoyed a strong leg higher; and selective cash-generative cyclicals and tech counters such as Seatrium and Riverstone, with semiconductor names like Frencken, AEM and UMS as higher-beta plays. However, this analysis relies only on two points in time and on derived metrics from market data. It does not substitute for proper work on earnings outlook, order books, regulatory risk or macro conditions. Any “may rise” comment here should be treated as an initial screen, not as a prediction or a recommendation to buy.


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Saturday, January 10, 2026

STI Blue-Chip Review, 5–9 January 2026: Property Leads While Banks and REIT Yields Anchor the Market

Over the five trading days from 5 to 9 January 2026, the STI constituents in this dataset showed a gentle upward bias rather than a strong breakout. From 6 January onwards, average daily returns stayed positive, but market breadth softened. On 6 January, 20 of the 30 counters advanced against 6 decliners; by 9 January, the number of advancers had eased to 13, with 9 decliners and 8 unchanged. The tape therefore points to a constructive but increasingly selective market, where investors reward specific themes rather than the whole index.

Real estate counters led the move. Over the week, Hongkong Land gained about 11.4 per cent, while Jardine Matheson added 7.9 per cent, City Developments rose 7.4 per cent, UOL advanced 6.4 per cent, and CapitaLand Investment climbed 5.9 per cent. By 9 January, many of these names traded roughly 0 to 1 per cent below their 52-week highs. This combination of strong weekly performance and proximity to year highs signals that the market has turned more constructive on the broader property complex, possibly on expectations of a friendlier interest-rate backdrop. However, the data quality flags remind investors that the fundamentals are not uniformly clean. City Developments carries “NEG_OCF; NEG_FCF” and Hongkong Land shows “NEG_FCF”, indicating weak or negative operating and free cash flow on the latest numbers. In their case, the rerating appears to lean more on sentiment and asset-value expectations than on cash-flow strength.

REITs and yield names also feature prominently. Logistics and industrial REITs such as Mapletree Logistics Trust, Mapletree Industrial Trust, Frasers Logistics & Commercial Trust and CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust all delivered small but positive weekly gains, in the range of roughly 1.0 to 2.3 per cent. At the same time, their indicated forward distribution yields remain elevated: around 7.5 per cent for CICT, about 5.9 per cent for both MLT and FLCT, and about 6.2 per cent for MIT. These counters now trade only about 1 to 1.5 per cent below their 52-week highs, and around 27 to 35 per cent above their 52-week lows. The tape suggests that income-oriented investors continue to accumulate higher-quality REITs even at richer prices, as long as yields stay comfortably above cash and government bond rates.

Among cyclicals, Genting Singapore stands out as a more balanced setup. It gained around 0.7 per cent over the week, offers a forward yield of about 5.5 per cent, and trades roughly 10 per cent above its 52-week low and about 8 to 9 per cent below its 52-week high. Compared with the REIT leaders that already sit near their highs, Genting looks more like a gradual recovery story where both capital-gains potential and income contribute to the total-return case.

Financials continue to provide the index with a stable backbone. Over the same period, DBS rose about 1.7 per cent, UOB climbed 1.5 per cent, and SGX gained 1.9 per cent, while OCBC slipped a mild 0.8 per cent. On 6 January in particular, Financial Services recorded the strongest average one-day gain among the sectors in the dataset. Earnings-yield figures for UOB and DBS come in around the high single digits, and their forward dividend yields sit in the 4.7 to 4.9 per cent range. This profile suggests that the market still views the Singapore banks as core income and quality holdings, though not deep value. Price action here looks more like steady consolidation than a fresh leg higher, with investors topping up selectively rather than chasing aggressively.

Outside property and banks, several industrial and technology names show constructive trends. Singapore Technologies Engineering advanced about 3.0 per cent over the five days, helped by its defence and infrastructure positioning and a trailing dividend yield above 3 per cent. Venture Corporation rose around 2.3 per cent, combining an earnings yield in the mid-single digits with a forward dividend yield of roughly 4.8 per cent and no negative data flags. Yangzijiang Shipbuilding gained around 4.3 per cent but carries a “NEG_EV” flag, signalling an anomaly in the enterprise-value calculation that investors should treat with care. These names illustrate that the market is willing to reward cash-generative, dividend-paying industrial and technology counters, but screening flags still need to be checked against the underlying accounts.

The laggards tell another part of the story. Frasers Centrepoint Trust fell about 2.6 per cent despite a very high indicated forward yield near 8.0 per cent. SATS, Singtel, Sembcorp, Thai Beverage, Keppel DC REIT and Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust also declined modestly, generally between 0.7 and 1.6 per cent over the week. These counters did not break down sharply, but they underperformed the property and REIT-led strength seen elsewhere in the index.

When looking at where prices sit relative to their 52-week ranges, some of these names appear closer to their lows than the leaders. For example, Thai Beverage trades only about 5 to 6 per cent above its 52-week low, while Singapore Airlines is roughly 9 per cent above its own low. This positioning suggests that parts of the consumer and aviation complex remain in consolidation, with the market waiting for clearer catalysts. From the tape alone, the weakness appears rotational rather than disorderly, but fresh positive developments would be needed before investors re-rate these counters.

Based on this five-day snapshot, the stocks that may have the best chance to continue doing well in the coming weeks fall into three broad groups. First, the property developers and selected real-estate names that are already near 52-week highs – Hongkong Land, Jardine Matheson, City Developments, UOL and CapitaLand Investment – show clear momentum, but their stretched positions and, in some cases, weak cash-flow flags mean that any further upside is likely to come with higher volatility and drawdown risk. Second, the high-yield REITs with positive but not explosive recent gains – CICT, MLT, MIT and FLCT – offer an attractive combination of mid to high single digit forward yields and stable price trends, though valuations now assume that distributions remain intact. Third, selected quality cyclicals and financials such as Genting Singapore, Venture, DBS, UOB and SGX appear reasonably supported by earnings and dividend yields, with price action pointing to a slow grind rather than a sharp rally.

It remains important to stress that this conclusion rests purely on five trading days of prices and a single set of fundamental and yield metrics. The dataset does not include the latest news flow, management guidance, macro developments or detailed financial-statement analysis. As such, any names highlighted here should be treated as a starting screen rather than a buy list. Before committing capital, an investor would still need to review full financials, recent announcements and personal risk tolerance, and to consider portfolio diversification across sectors and styles. On balance, the numbers from 5 to 9 January 2026 depict an STI dominated by property-driven strength and supported by banks and selected industrials, with income-seeking investors continuing to favour higher-quality REITs even as they approach their year highs.


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Tuesday, January 6, 2026

STI Blue Chips Snapshot (5–6 Jan 2026): Banks Lead, REITs Mixed, Momentum Improves

Across the two latest trading sessions on 5 and 6 January 2026, STI constituents showed a modest but broadly constructive improvement. Average prices edged higher, with gains outnumbering declines, indicating a cautious return of buying interest rather than a sharp risk-on move. While the magnitude of daily price changes remained limited, the improvement in market breadth suggests stabilisation rather than exhaustion.

Financial Services emerged as the clear area of relative strength. The major banks recorded firm gains, supported by their defensive earnings profiles and liquidity appeal. SGX also advanced, a development often associated with improving sentiment and trading activity. This pattern points to selective accumulation in large, systemically important counters rather than speculative interest in higher-risk segments.

Industrial and cyclical names contributed selectively to gains. Jardine Matheson recorded a strong move, while Yangzijiang Shipbuilding also advanced, though certain enterprise-value and cash-flow-related indicators in the data warrant careful interpretation. These gains appear driven more by price momentum than by a broad re-rating of underlying fundamentals.

In contrast, the real estate sector, particularly REITs, delivered mixed performance. Several REITs were flat to marginally higher, while others declined despite a generally positive market session. This divergence highlights continued sensitivity to interest rate expectations and financing conditions. In such cases, headline dividend yields can rise mechanically as prices fall, and should not be interpreted in isolation as signs of improving fundamentals.

From a technical perspective, counters trading above their short- and medium-term moving averages while remaining within range of their 52-week highs tend to reflect steadier accumulation. Based on these characteristics, names such as SGX, Venture Corporation, Wilmar International, CapitaLand Investment, and Mapletree Industrial Trust appear better positioned within the current dataset. For the banks, price momentum and sector leadership provide more insight than enterprise-value-based ratios, which are less meaningful for financial institutions.

Several counters in the dataset also display data-quality or financial-structure flags, including negative operating or free cash flow. These signals do not automatically imply deterioration, but they do limit the usefulness of certain valuation ratios and reinforce the need for caution when comparing across sectors with different capital and cash-flow profiles.

This commentary is based on a narrow two-day comparison of market-derived statistics and should be viewed as a screening exercise rather than a forecast. Higher-confidence assessments typically require a longer observation period, identifiable earnings or policy catalysts, and confirmation from underlying financial statements. Within these constraints, the data suggests that market tone improved on 6 January, leadership remained concentrated in banks and SGX, and REITs continued to trade in a more rate-sensitive and selective manner.


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Sunday, January 4, 2026

Year-End to New-Year STI Snapshot: REITs Firmer, Banks Holding Near Highs (30–31 Dec 2025, 2 Jan 2026)

Across the 30 STI component stocks from 30 Dec 2025 to 2 Jan 2026, the overall tone was mildly positive over this very short window. During this period, 15 counters rose, 7 fell, and 8 were effectively flat, with the average move only about +0.2%. This is important context because a 3-session sample around a year-end and a New Year holiday period can distort signals: flows are often driven by rebalancing, window-dressing, and thinner liquidity rather than fresh fundamentals.

The standout pattern is sector leadership from Real Estate names (including REITs and developers), which collectively did better than the rest over these three sessions. Financial Services (which includes the banks) was broadly flat to slightly softer on average, but the banks were still notable because they continued to transact heavily by value and remained very close to their 52-week highs, which usually signals underlying demand is still present even if the price is not sprinting.

On 2 Jan 2026 specifically, trading attention by value was clearly concentrated in DBS, UOB, and OCBC, which ranked among the top traded by dollar value. This kind of concentration is typical when institutions are active, and it tends to support price stability. At the same time, the biggest relative volume spike versus 3-month average came from Mapletree Industrial Trust, which traded at roughly 2.3x its 3-month average daily volume, suggesting fresh positioning rather than routine noise.

In terms of short-term price movers, the better performers from 30 Dec to 2 Jan were Hongkong Land, Sembcorp Industries, CapitaLand Investment, Thai Beverage, Frasers Logistics & Commercial Trust, and Mapletree Industrial Trust. On the weaker side over the same window were Jardine Matheson, Wilmar, SATS, DFI Retail, ST Engineering, and SGX. This is not saying the “down” names are bad companies; it simply reflects where money flowed during these few sessions.

For “stocks that may rise in the coming weeks”, the dataset can only give a watchlist, not a confident buy signal, because price and volume over three sessions is not enough to forecast returns reliably. Still, if we take a practical approach, the more plausible “near-term follow-through” candidates are the names that show a combination of (a) price holding near 52-week highs, (b) steady or improving activity, and (c) reasonable forward dividend yield or valuation metrics in the data. In that sense, DBS and OCBC look like classic “strength holding” counters because they are within about 1% of their 52-week highs on 2 Jan and they continue to dominate trading value, which often means dips get supported. Keppel also fits a “strength holding” profile, sitting close to its 52-week high while showing a positive move across the window. For income-focused positioning, several REITs remain worth watching because they were firming while seeing meaningful turnover; Mapletree Industrial Trust in particular stands out due to the volume spike, and Frasers Logistics & Commercial Trust closed right at its 52-week high in your 2 Jan snapshot, which sometimes attracts momentum buyers if the broader market mood stays supportive.

A quick caution on dividends: Thai Beverage shows an extremely high trailing dividend yield in the latest snapshot, which is almost certainly a data artefact or a special-dividend effect rather than a normal run-rate yield, so it is safer to lean on forward yield and the broader context rather than treating the trailing number as investable “income”.

Below is a compact watchlist view using only what appears in the latest (2 Jan 2026) data plus the 30 Dec → 2 Jan move, just to make the patterns concrete.


In the Singapore context, the near-term base case from the data over the three dates is that money rotated back into REITs and selective cyclicals while keeping the banks well-supported near highs. That kind of tape usually favours a “buy-on-dips” behaviour in the stronger names rather than a broad chase across everything. The biggest risk to this read is simply that a period of three sessions is too short, and the moment broader macro headlines or rates expectations swing, the leadership can change quickly, especially for REITs.


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Between Oil Shocks and Opportunity: A Weekly Review of STI Stocks Amid War and Trade Headwinds

17–20 March 2026 | Weekly Investment Commentary on SGX Straits Times Index Constituents Disclaimer: This commentary is for informational a...