STI breaks 5,000, then money rotates: what the Excel data shows from 12–27 Feb 2026

The Excel data covers 30 STI constituents plus the SPDR Straits Times Index ETF (ES3). It starts right on the day the STI first crossed 5,000 (12 Feb 2026), a move that local coverage linked to strong bank leadership and market-revival measures. From that high-profile milestone, the Excel data then shows a more mixed second half of February, where the index-level feel turned sideways, but a small group of cyclicals attracted more attention and delivered outsized price moves.

Across 12–27 Feb 2026, the Excel data shows Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (BS6) rising about 27.3% (S$3.41 to S$4.34) and Seatrium (5E2) rising about 12.1% (S$2.14 to S$2.40). Singapore Airlines (C6L) gained about 4.1%, while Keppel (BN4) gained about 3.3%. Over the same window, the three banks softened: DBS (D05) fell about 1.1%, OCBC (O39) fell about 1.6%, and UOB (U11) fell about 6.4%. The pattern fits the broader news flow: after the STI’s 5,000 breakthrough, post-Budget trading turned choppier and bank counters saw bouts of profit-taking.

The “rotation” shows up clearly when looking at where trading activity concentrates. Using the Excel data’s price and volume as a simple proxy for daily traded value, the banks’ combined share of attention fell from roughly 40.5% of traded value on 12 Feb to about 29.2% on 27 Feb. Over the same period, a basket of cyclicals (Yangzijiang, Seatrium, SIA, Keppel) rose from roughly 11.2% to about 26.0%. This does not prove a lasting trend by itself, but it does show that the market started “looking elsewhere” beyond the banks as February progressed.

A second signal is “follow-through” buying. Over 23–27 Feb (the part of the Excel data where ES3 prices appear), Yangzijiang rose about 12.4% and Seatrium rose about 8.6%, with both counters trading at roughly 2.7–2.9× their 3-month average volume on average in that same window. That kind of volume-supported rise often means investors reacted to fresh catalysts rather than just drifting with the index. In Yangzijiang’s case, local coverage tied the sharp move directly to stronger earnings. In Seatrium’s case, local reporting highlighted a profit surge, while industry coverage pointed to a more active positioning in the FPSO market, which can keep sentiment firm if contract momentum continues.

On the laggard side, the Excel data shows Venture (V03) down about 6.4% across 12–27 Feb, and local market reports singled it out as the worst STI performer on 27 Feb; that move lines up with the timing of its earnings news. Genting Singapore (G13) fell about 7.1% across the same window, and local coverage pointed to weaker 2025 net profit amid asset enhancement works. Sembcorp Industries (U96) fell about 3.0%, which also matches the tone of its results coverage describing a slight profit dip and weaker gas earnings.

Zooming out, the Excel data suggests the broader market was still “priced near good news” even after the pullbacks: on 27 Feb, about 55% of the names in the sheet sat within 5% of their 52-week highs. That matters for the next few weeks because it raises the chance of short, sharp profit-taking if headlines disappoint, even while the underlying uptrend remains intact. At the ETF level, ES3 (where available from 23–27 Feb) eased about 0.8%, so stock selection mattered more than simply being “in the index” during that stretch.

For what may rise in the coming weeks, the Excel data points to a short watchlist rather than a sure prediction. Yangzijiang and Seatrium show the cleanest combination of rising prices, heavy volume, and news catalysts; if the post-results momentum persists, they can remain leadership names, but they can also swing harder on any negative surprise. Singapore Airlines also looks constructive in the Excel data, and results coverage emphasised record revenue and still-healthy travel demand even though headline profit fell for accounting-related reasons; that mix can support sentiment if yields and loads hold up. Meanwhile, the banks may need time to stabilise after the post-5,000 digestion phase; they still anchor the STI’s long-term direction, but the Excel data shows they did not lead the February leg after the milestone.

From a simple core-and-satellite portfolio framing, the Excel data supports using ES3 as the core anchor (broad exposure, less single-stock risk), then treating the large, liquid “steady names” as core complements (for example, DBS/OCBC/UOB and Singtel, which the Excel data shows carrying roughly mid-single-digit dividend yields at the end of the period). Satellites suit the “momentum with higher swings” bucket: Yangzijiang, Seatrium, Singapore Airlines, and Keppel fit that description in this specific February window because they combined price strength with a noticeable pickup in trading interest. This remains a probability call, not a guarantee, and it works best when an investor sizes satellites smaller and monitors them more actively.

If you want to do your own analysis, you can get the data I used for the price of a cup of kopi!  Here:

👉 Time-Saver! 2025 Year End Top 30, 2026 January Top 60

👉 Time-Saver! Precompiled SGX STI Companies Stocks Statistics

STI Watchlist Pulse Check: 5–20 Feb 2026 (What the Excel data suggests)

Across 5 to 20 Feb 2026, the Excel data points to a generally constructive tone among Straits Times Index constituents. Twenty stocks rose over this window, seven fell, and three were roughly flat, with the average constituent up about 1.9% and the median up about 1.4%. The leadership looked more cyclical than defensive, while the softer names clustered around selected REITs and one large bank.

What looked significant in the Excel data

The first pattern was a mild “risk-on” tilt. The biggest movers came from industrial and cyclically sensitive names, while the REIT cluster looked more mixed. This kind of split often shows up when the market feels more comfortable taking exposure to growth and restructuring stories, but still stays selective on rate-sensitive yield counters.

The second pattern was how volume confirmed (or questioned) the move. combined the strongest gain with consistently elevated trading activity versus its recent average, which is usually what a market looks like when institutions participate rather than only retail momentum. By contrast, fell on above-average activity too, suggesting real re-positioning rather than a quiet drift.

The third pattern was shorter-term momentum strengthening into the last week of the window. In the 16–20 Feb stretch, and posted notably strong multi-day advances, while stabilised and bounced even though it still finished the full window lower. That matters because it suggests some selling pressure may have already been absorbed, at least in the near term.

News cross-check: plausible drivers behind the moves

REIT performance often comes down to the interest-rate narrative and refinancing comfort. Local market commentary has highlighted that REIT total returns can improve when investors expect lower rates and funding pressure eases, though the benefit tends to be uneven across names depending on balance sheet and asset quality.

For Keppel, the strength in the Excel data lines up with fresh corporate developments and headline items that can attract both income and “story” investors at the same time, including results-related announcements and a special dividend proposal reported in local business coverage.

For Singtel, the positive price trend in the Excel data also matches a news flow that provided a clearer strategic narrative. A consortium involving Singtel agreed to pay US$5.2 billion for full control of data-centre operator STT GDC, which is the sort of deal that can re-rate sentiment when markets are focused on digital infrastructure themes. Singtel then reported a rise in third-quarter underlying net profit, supported by associate contributions and related items, which can further reinforce near-term confidence.

On the other side, DBS’s pullback in the Excel data is consistent with a post-results digestion phase. Reporting indicated the bank warned profits could fall and that loan growth was flattening, which can push investors to take some risk off the table after a run, even if the longer-term franchise remains intact.

Within the REIT laggards, the Excel data weakness in CapitaLand Ascendas REIT also fits with recent distribution commentary. Business reporting noted its distribution per unit dipped slightly, while also discussing asset enhancement progress and the pathway to future distribution growth, which can be supportive longer term but still disappoint investors who are trading the near-term number. Mapletree Logistics Trust saw a similar market response pattern, with reporting pointing to a sharper DPU decline linked to higher costs and currency effects, factors that typically weigh on sentiment until there is clearer evidence of stabilisation.

Is it possible to spot stocks that may rise in the coming weeks?

The Excel data cannot “predict” winners, but it can help shortlist names where the market is already voting with both price and activity, and where news flow has reduced uncertainty. In this window, Keppel and Singtel stood out as the clearest “market leaders” because they combined upward price trends with comparatively firm participation, and their recent headlines gave investors something concrete to anchor on. If the broader market tone stays steady, these leaders often remain on watchlists for continuation, even if they pause or pull back in the short run.

The Excel data also suggests a second group that looks more like “recovery candidates”, where gains came with more day-to-day volatility and the longer-term trend indicators in the data looked less uniformly positive. Sembcorp Industries and Seatrium fit this description. They can move quickly when sentiment improves, but the same leverage to sentiment can work the other way too, so investors typically treat them as higher-risk satellites rather than portfolio anchors.

For the lagging REIT names such as CapitaLand Ascendas REIT and Mapletree Logistics Trust, the Excel data suggests investors are still cautious. They may bounce if the rate narrative turns more supportive, but the near-term catalyst tends to be proof that distributions and borrowing costs are stabilising, not just hopes of a macro tailwind.

Core and satellite framing from the Excel data

A practical way to use the Excel data is to separate “core” names that tend to hold up through most market moods from “satellite” names that can add performance but can also swing more.

This split is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is a way to interpret what the Excel data is signalling. If an investor wants a steadier ride, the “core” group tends to be where the position sizes start bigger and holding periods run longer. If an investor accepts more volatility to chase upside, the “satellite” group is where smaller, more actively reviewed positions usually sit, especially when price moves look sentiment-driven.

If you want to do your own analysis, you can get the data I used for the price of a cup of kopi!  Here:

👉 Time-Saver! 2025 Year End Top 30, 2026 January Top 60

👉 Time-Saver! Precompiled SGX STI Companies Stocks Statistics

STI Rotation Watch (29 Jan–13 Feb 2026): Cyclicals and Telcos Led While Banks and Industrial REITs Cooled

Across the ten trading days in the Excel data (29–30 Jan and 4–6, 9–13 Feb 2026), price action looked more like sector rotation than a broad “risk-on” rally. Eighteen STI constituents gained over the window and twelve fell, with the average stock up about 1.3% (median about 0.9%). The dispersion was wide, with the best performer up about 13.8% while the weakest names fell about 4–5%, so stock selection mattered more than the index label.

This rotation happened against a backdrop of a strong Singapore tape, with the Straits Times Index pushing to record territory and crossing the 5,000 mark for the first time in early February.

A quick snapshot of the main movers (total price change from 29 Jan to 13 Feb, from the Excel data) is below.

Keppel’s move was the clearest “event-driven” burst in the Excel data, with its biggest one-day jump landing on 5 Feb (the same day it closed up about 6.1%). That lines up with headline catalysts: FY2025 results, a proposed special dividend, and board leadership changes that were widely reported locally and internationally. The fact that Keppel ended 13 Feb trading very near its 52-week high (per the Excel data) suggests the market treated the news as a re-rating moment rather than a one-day spike.

Singtel’s strength also looked catalyst-backed. The Excel data showed two sharp up-steps (notably on 4 Feb and again into 11–12 Feb), and Reuters reported that Singtel’s third-quarter underlying profit rose, helped by stronger contributions from associates like Bharti Airtel and AIS, alongside a large exceptional gain linked to trimming its Airtel stake. In simple terms, the market had both earnings momentum and a tangible capital-recycling headline to price in, which often attracts follow-through buying when sentiment is already constructive.

By contrast, the local banks collectively looked like they paused, not broke. In the Excel data, DBS drifted down steadily from 6 Feb into 13 Feb, while OCBC and UOB held up better but still ended slightly lower over the full window. That pattern matches a plausible “good news already priced / rates may be less supportive” narrative: Reuters reported DBS’ Q4 net profit missed forecasts and management flagged continuing headwinds from the interest-rate environment, with shares dipping after the results. A separate Business Times piece also highlighted the market’s tendency to compare banks versus yield assets as rate expectations shift. From a positioning angle, this looks like profit-taking and rotation into cyclicals/telcos, rather than investors abandoning the banks altogether.

Industrial and logistics REITs were the other visible soft patch. Several were not only down over the full window, but also sat below both their 50-day and 200-day average prices in the Excel data (a simple sign that their near-term trend still lacks support). Even while some commentaries were turning more constructive on S-REITs into 2026 as funding costs ease, the Excel data suggests investors still discriminated at the stock level—especially where distribution growth is harder to defend or where refinancing narratives remain sticky.

Looking forward, the Excel data alone cannot “prove” which stocks will rise in the coming weeks, but it can highlight where momentum and market attention are already clustering. Keppel and Singtel stood out because the gains were large, the moves came with unusually heavy volume on key days (Keppel’s peak volume ran about 5x its 3-month daily average; CapitaLand Investment’s peak day was even higher), and the news flow had clear valuation anchors like dividends, earnings, and capital recycling. Singapore Airlines also trended up in a steadier “grind higher” profile through February in the Excel data; one near-term watch item is that corporate funding and capital structure actions (such as its S$500 million notes issuance reported by Reuters) can signal management’s readiness to invest through the cycle, though that does not automatically translate into share price upside.

A practical way to frame a core-and-satellite approach, based on what the Excel data showed, is to treat the core as the durable franchise names that investors tend to hold through rotations, then use satellites to express shorter-cycle views. A core sleeve could centre on the three local banks (even after the pullback in DBS), plus steadier industrial/defensive exposures like ST Engineering and selected large property/platform names where liquidity stays deep; this keeps the portfolio anchored if the rotation reverses. A satellite sleeve can then tilt towards the “attention stocks” that already show strong trend and volume confirmation, such as Keppel and Singtel, and selectively towards cyclical reopen/consumption proxies like Singapore Airlines, SATS and Genting Singapore if one accepts higher volatility and event risk. The Excel data also suggests some laggards (especially certain REITs and Seatrium) screen as “valuation rebound” candidates when you compare price versus analyst target fields, but their trend weakness means they work better as smaller satellites than as portfolio anchors unless price action stabilises.

If you want to do your own analysis, you can get the data I used for the price of a cup of kopi!  Here:

👉 Time-Saver! 2025 Year End Top 30, 2026 Jan Top 60

👉 Time-Saver! Precompiled SGX STI Companies Stocks Statistics

STI watchlist (22 Jan to 6 Feb 2026): Breadth improved, with Keppel-led strength while REITs and Yangzijiang lagged

Across the 10 Excel snapshots (22, 23, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30 Jan and 4, 5, 6 Feb 2026), the STI constituents showed firmer breadth into early February. In this window, 19 of the 30 names rose on a last-price basis, while 11 declined. The pattern looked less like a broad “everything rally” and more like rotation: communication services and selected cyclicals led, the banks stayed constructive, and several rate-sensitive REITs softened.

The clearest feature in the data was the strength in Keppel. Keppel gained about 6.9% from 22 Jan to 6 Feb, and it also accelerated into the last few observations with higher-than-usual trading activity versus its 3-month average. This price action fits with the company’s FY2025 results catalyst and shareholder distribution headlines, which lifted sentiment and re-rated the “asset monetisation + recurring income” story.

Singtel also stood out, rising about 5.8% over the window. Even though it pulled back in the last few observations in your dataset, it remained close to its 52-week high. The market narrative locally has been increasingly anchored on digital infrastructure optionality, and the early-February data centre deal headlines (involving Singtel through a consortium transaction) likely reinforced this theme.

Among the financial heavyweights, DBS, OCBC and UOB showed steady upward drift rather than sharp moves. That “grind higher” matters because the banks are still a large driver of index direction, and in your snapshots the prices stayed above key moving averages more often than not. The immediate swing factor for the coming weeks is earnings season messaging and capital return expectations (dividends, buybacks, special distributions), which tends to matter as much as headline profit numbers for Singapore banks.

On the cyclical and reopening-sensitive side, Singapore Airlines rose about 4.5% over the same window, with the data also showing prices holding above longer-term averages. That lines up with the continued “demand is strong but yields are the watch item” framing that often accompanies the operating statistics updates; the December operating figures reported in mid-January still pointed to healthy passenger and cargo activity, which can keep near-term confidence supported even if investors debate margin normalisation.

The laggards were also quite clear, and they help explain the market’s risk preferences. Yangzijiang Shipbuilding fell about 6.5% over the window and also saw notably elevated volume versus its 3-month average, suggesting heavier two-way trading and less patience from marginal buyers. Several REITs and yield proxies also drifted down, including Mapletree Industrial Trust (about -3.8%), Mapletree Logistics Trust (about -3.7%), and CapitaLand Ascendas REIT (about -3.1%). Taken together with the relative resilience in “growth-by-investment” infrastructure names, the tape looked consistent with investors being selective about balance sheet leverage and distribution durability rather than simply chasing headline yields.

Looking ahead a few weeks, the dataset suggests two practical “setups” to watch. The first is leadership continuation: names that are near their 52-week highs and above key moving averages can keep working if catalysts continue to land and there is no macro shock. In your window, Keppel, Singtel and several large caps in real estate/industrials (for example, CapitaLand Investment and ST Engineering) sat in that higher-momentum bucket. The second is mean reversion: some laggards may bounce, but the data implies investors will likely demand a clear trigger (results, guidance, order wins, capital actions) because the down-moves were not isolated to one day and, in some cases, came with higher volume.

For portfolio construction, it is still sensible to separate what anchors the portfolio from what expresses a short-to-medium term view. For “core” holdings, the data supports an emphasis on the index’s structural weights and cashflow durability: DBS, OCBC and UOB as the banking trio, plus Singtel as a defensive-ish cash generator with digital infrastructure upside, and ST Engineering as a steadier industrial compounder. This does not mean these names cannot fall, but in your snapshots they behaved like the market’s “backbone” rather than the market’s “lottery tickets,” and they are the ones most likely to benefit if earnings season confirms stable fundamentals.

For “satellite” positions, the data points more towards selective opportunistic exposure where there is visible momentum and a narrative catalyst. Keppel fits this best in your window, because the price rise was large, the move strengthened into early February, and the newsflow has been supportive. Singapore Airlines can also sit as a satellite for investors who accept aviation cyclicality, because the price action stayed constructive alongside continued operating updates. A smaller satellite allocation could also be reserved for one or two REITs only if an investor has a strong view on the rate path and can tolerate short-term volatility, since your window showed REIT performance was uneven and not broadly supportive.

Two cautions are worth keeping explicit. First, short windows can overstate momentum, especially around results announcements and one-off transactions, so it is safer to treat this as “watchlist prioritisation” rather than a definitive forecast. Second, a few fields in the dataset can look extreme (for example, trailing dividend yield figures) depending on how special dividends and trailing-period calculations were captured, so investors should cross-check any unusually high yield signals against company announcements before acting.

If you want to do your own analysis, you can get the data I used for the price of a cup of kopi!  Here:

👉 Time-Saver! 2025 Year End Top 30, 2026 Current Top 60

👉 Time-Saver! Precompiled SGX STI Companies Stocks Statistics

Trading activity signals on SGX beyond the STI from late Dec 2025 to end-Jan 2026

This commentary analyses the six “Top by Average Daily Trading Value/Volume” data snapshots that I have, covering 31 Dec 2025, 15 Jan 2026 and 30 Jan 2026. 

The data shows two very different “liquidity stories” happening at the same time. On the trading value side (a rough proxy here is the 3-month average daily volume multiplied by the latest price), activity stayed heavily concentrated in large, established counters, and the leadership barely changed across the month. On the trading volume side, the leaders were mostly low-priced stocks where big share counts can trade without large money changing hands, so the tape there looked more speculative and rotated more quickly.

A key macro backdrop is that Monetary Authority of Singapore kept monetary policy unchanged on 29 Jan 2026 while raising its inflation forecasts for 2026, and it highlighted that Singapore’s trade-related sectors could be supported by the AI cycle while financial services could benefit from steady lending and capital-market activity. That combination typically reinforces investor preference for liquid “quality” names first, before it spills into smaller caps.

In that context, it is not surprising that the trading value leaders were dominated by DBS Group Holdings, United Overseas Bank and OCBC throughout the period. By 30 Jan 2026, the top three alone made up roughly 40 per cent of the total “average daily trading value” across the top-60 list, and the top five made up about 52 per cent. That level of concentration suggests institutions and larger investors were still doing most of their positioning via the biggest, most liquid counters. They were not spreading out evenly across the market.

The banks also had an additional near-term narrative support: local coverage noted that Singapore bank shares had already performed well in January and that analysts continued to point to attractive dividend yields, even as the market watched for the usual banking risks like net interest margin normalisation and credit cycle uncertainty. When a sector is both heavily traded by value and framed as still offering “reasonable carry” (dividends), it often stays supported, unless there is a clear negative catalyst.

Away from financials, the value list still pointed to a steady “core liquidity bench” rather than a sudden rotation. Singapore Telecommunications, Singapore Exchange, ST Engineering, Keppel and CapitaLand Investment repeatedly appeared near the top. This kind of persistence matters. Every name that was in the top-30 trading value list on 31 Dec 2025 remained inside the top-60 by 30 Jan 2026, which is a sign of structural liquidity rather than a one-week punt.

Within that “core”, the industrial/defence angle looked especially well-supported on headlines. ST Engineering’s contract win to supply next-generation infantry fighting vehicles, reported on 26 Jan 2026, provided a concrete local catalyst consistent with why it stayed highly traded by value and close to its 52-week highs in my snapshots. This kind of news flow can keep institutional interest steady because it reinforces orderbook visibility and long-dated delivery pipelines.

For travel and consumer cyclicals, Singapore Airlines remained a meaningful liquidity name, and that matched an operating update: The Business Times reported passenger traffic rising 1.9 per cent in December, with load factors and capacity context provided in the same release cycle. This does not guarantee upside, but it helps explain why the counter continues to attract consistent value-based turnover: investors tend to respond to frequent, measurable operating datapoints.

Property-linked names looked like they quietly improved in rank by trading value across the month, rather than exploding in volume. City Developments and UOL Group both moved up a few places in the value-ranking comparison between late December and end-January, which usually means more sustained participation rather than one-off spikes. A plausible macro explanation is that analysts expected Singapore private home prices to keep rising in 2026, albeit at a slower pace. When the base case is “still rising, just less hot”, developers can get bid up steadily, but sentiment can turn quickly if policy or financing conditions shift.

The volume lists told a different story. The median share price in the end-January volume top-60 was around S$0.10, versus about S$2.02 for the value top-60, so it was much easier for low-priced counters to dominate “shares traded” without necessarily indicating heavy conviction buying. In the 30 Jan 2026 volume snapshot, names like CapAllianz Holdings and Marco Polo Marine sat near the top on average daily volume, but these profiles are typically more trading-driven and can reverse fast if sentiment cools.

Still, a few mid-tier names appeared in both the value and volume top-60 lists, which is usually where the more investable “satellite ideas” show up: Yangzijiang Shipbuilding, Seatrium and Genting Singapore were examples of stocks that had both meaningful share flow and meaningful dollar flow. That overlap can matter because it hints that interest is not purely penny-stock churn, although it still does not tell us whether the flows are net accumulation or distribution.

One useful micro-signal from the January comparisons is that the end-month trading value top-60 added names like UOB Kay Hian, which can be interpreted as the market paying more attention to “market activity beneficiaries” when turnover and capital-market talk pick up. The Straits Times’ early-January market roundup also highlighted how investors were scanning for event-driven opportunities (for example, corporate actions and deal-linked stories) rather than only following the STI mega caps. That matches what the data shows: the big names anchored liquidity, while the next layer rotated based on specific narratives.

Putting this together, the most defensible “could rise further if conditions stay supportive” basket is usually the one already attracting sustained trading value and backed by clear, ongoing narratives: the big three banks, SGX, and selected large industrials/blue chips like ST Engineering and Singtel. For Singtel, a fresh potential catalyst emerged right after the 30 Jan snapshot: The Edge reported that Singtel and KKR were nearing a deal to acquire a majority stake in ST Telemedia Global Data Centres, which would reinforce the data-centre growth angle that investors have been tracking. If follow-through news confirms deal structure and economics, it can keep attention on the telco and related infrastructure themes.

At the same time, the data does not support treating high-volume penny counters as straightforward “buy now” candidates. High share volume at low prices often reflects short-term positioning, rapid rotations, and headline chasing—and the probability of sharp pullbacks is meaningfully higher. For those names, the safer conclusion from my files is simply that they are “in play” for traders, not that they have a durable re-rating case.

Overall, the tape suggests a market that stayed anchored in liquid quality (banks and large caps) while selectively reaching for catalysts in industrials, travel, property and a handful of higher-beta names. If the macro stance remains stable and earnings news does not disappoint, that pattern can persist for a few more weeks, but once leadership is this concentrated, a lot of good news is already priced in, so entries typically work better on pullbacks than on straight strength.

If you want to do your own analysis, you can get the data I used for the price of a cup of kopi!  Here:

👉 Time-Saver! 2025 Year End Top 30, 2026 Current Top 60

👉 Time-Saver! Precompiled SGX STI Companies Stocks Statistics