A Turbulent Week Opens with a Sharp Sell-Off
The week of 9 to 13 March 2026 proved to be a defining stretch for Singapore equities, as the Straits Times Index weathered significant volatility driven by the escalating conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran. The Excel data covering four trading days — 9, 10, 11 and 13 March — reveals that the STI opened the week under severe pressure, with the index sliding 2.1% on Monday 9 March amid a broad sell-off that saw decliners outnumber advancers by more than five to one. The SPDR STI ETF (ES3.SI) reflected this trajectory, moving from $4.75 on 9 March to $4.836 by 13 March, recovering approximately 1.8% over the course of the week despite the persistent geopolitical headwinds.
The sell-off on 9 March was triggered by a confluence of factors. Over the preceding weekend of 28 February 2026, the United States and Israel had launched coordinated military strikes on Iran, a campaign that rapidly escalated into a wider confrontation. Iran retaliated by effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint through which approximately 20% of global oil supplies transit daily. By 12 March, Brent crude had surged above $100 per barrel for the first time since August 2022, after Iran's new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei pledged to keep the Strait shut as a "tool of pressure." The International Energy Agency described the situation as creating "the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market," with an estimated 10 million barrels per day of crude and other oil products cut off from global markets.
Price Movements Across the STI Constituents
An analysis of the Excel data across the four trading days reveals a wide dispersion in stock performance. Despite the dramatic macro backdrop, the majority of STI component stocks managed to post positive returns over the week. Of the 30 STI constituents tracked, 23 finished the period in positive territory, four were flat, and only three declined.
The standout performer was Hongkong Land, which surged 10.4% over the week. This was followed by DFI Retail Group at 9.8% and Wilmar International at 7.7%. These gains suggest that investors were rotating into names perceived as beneficiaries of supply-chain disruptions and commodity-linked tailwinds. Wilmar, in particular, stands to benefit from elevated commodity prices given its position in the agri-food value chain, and its share price touched its 52-week high during the period.
At the other end, Yangzijiang Shipbuilding fell 2.9%, the sole notable decliner among the industrials. Despite its strong fundamentals — the stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of just 8.0 and boasts the highest return on equity in the STI at 29.4% — the sell-off may reflect profit-taking after its strong run over the past year, where it has gained over 120% from its 52-week low.
The Banking Sector: Steady Amid the Storm
Singapore's three banking giants provided a reassuring anchor for the market during the week. The Excel data shows DBS rising from $54.31 to $55.31 (+1.8%), UOB from $35.51 to $36.16 (+1.8%), and OCBC from $20.46 to $20.63 (+0.8%). Notably, all three banks peaked on 10 March before pulling back slightly, suggesting a pattern of initial bargain-hunting followed by some caution as the oil crisis deepened.
The banks continue to offer compelling dividend yields. At their 13 March prices, DBS offers a forward yield of approximately 5.5%, UOB around 4.8%, and OCBC approximately 4.1%. DBS has committed to maintaining its quarterly capital return dividend of $0.15 per share through to FY2027, which provides income investors with a degree of certainty even in volatile markets. All three banks maintain non-performing loan ratios near historic lows, though any prolonged economic deterioration from the energy crisis could test these levels.
A key consideration for the banks in the coming weeks is the impact of higher oil prices on inflation expectations. If the Strait of Hormuz disruption persists and oil stays above $100, the Monetary Authority of Singapore may find itself navigating between supporting growth and containing imported inflation, which could complicate the rate-cut trajectory that consensus had previously expected.
Defence and Aerospace: The War Premium Takes Hold
The defence-adjacent stocks within the STI presented an interesting picture during the week. ST Engineering, Singapore's premier defence and aerospace conglomerate, rose from $10.73 to $10.88, a gain of 1.4%. However, the day-by-day data reveals a more dramatic intraday story: ST Engineering spiked to $11.09 on 11 March — a sharp mid-week jump that coincided with Iran's attacks on commercial tankers — before retreating by 13 March. This pattern mirrors what analysts describe as a "defence premium" that the market has been assigning to the stock since the conflict began.
ST Engineering's fundamentals remain robust. The company reported FY2025 core profit growth of 21% and holds a record order book of $33.2 billion, of which $9.9 billion is earmarked for delivery in the current financial year. The company's president for defence and public security has stated publicly that the structural shift in global defence spending is unlikely to wane even if current conflicts subside, noting NATO members' commitment to raise defence spending to 5% of GDP by 2035. Singapore's own Budget 2026 allocated $19.7 billion — approximately 3% of GDP — to defence, a 6.4% increase from the previous year.
However, the Excel data shows that ST Engineering's valuation is stretched. The stock trades at a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of 72.5 and a forward price-to-earnings of 28.7, with analyst consensus target prices averaging $10.84 — essentially flat against the 13 March closing price. For investors, this suggests that the defence premium may already be fully priced in, making it a "hold" rather than a fresh "buy" at current levels.
Seatrium, the offshore and marine engineering firm, posted a solid 3.95% gain for the week, rising from $2.28 to $2.37. Higher oil prices directly benefit Seatrium's order pipeline, as elevated energy prices incentivise upstream exploration and production activity. The stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings of 14.5 and has an analyst consensus target of $2.69, implying roughly 14% upside from its 13 March close.
The Effects of War on STI Stocks
The conflict between the US-Israel coalition and Iran has produced multifaceted effects across the STI. The Excel data, read alongside news reports, allows the identification of several transmission channels through which the war has impacted Singapore-listed equities.
The most direct channel is the oil price shock. With Brent crude soaring from approximately $70 before the conflict to above $100 by 13 March, energy-sensitive stocks have been whipsawed. Sembcorp Industries, which operates power generation and utility assets, rose 1.2% over the week. While higher energy prices can support Sembcorp's upstream activities, they also raise input costs for its power generation business, creating an ambiguous net effect. Seatrium, as noted, benefits more directly from oil prices, while Singapore Airlines faces significant headwinds from rising jet fuel costs and the disruption to Middle Eastern airspace — though SIA still managed a modest 0.8% gain, supported by the fact that OCBC Research has identified SATS as a potential beneficiary from redirected trade flows.
The second channel is the safe-haven trade. OCBC Group Research has maintained an overweight position on Singapore equities, viewing the city-state as a potential safe haven amid global geopolitical tensions. This assessment appears to have supported the Singapore market's relative resilience compared to the steep declines seen on Wall Street, where the S&P 500 and Nasdaq experienced their sharpest weekly falls in over two years. Singapore's strong fiscal position, stable currency, and well-capitalised banking sector make it an attractive destination for capital fleeing uncertainty.
The third channel is the inflationary impulse. Higher oil prices threaten to pass through to consumer prices and corporate margins across the board. For REITs, which dominate the real estate sector of the STI, rising costs could pressure margins, though the data shows that most REITs held steady or posted modest gains. CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust rose 1.3%, while Mapletree Industrial Trust gained 1.0%. The higher-yielding REITs — Frasers Logistics and Commercial Trust (forward yield of 6.4%), Mapletree Industrial Trust (6.6%), and Mapletree Logistics Trust (5.8%) — may attract income-seeking investors if bond yields remain unattractive.
Identifying Stocks That May Rise in the Coming Weeks
Based on the trends observed in the Excel data, combined with analyst consensus targets and the prevailing macro backdrop, several stocks appear positioned for potential gains in the near term.
Stocks trading at a meaningful discount to their analyst consensus target price, with supportive fundamentals, include CapitaLand Investment (+22.8% upside to target), CapitaLand Ascendas REIT (+25.5%), Genting Singapore (+27.3%), SATS (+21.7%), and Sembcorp Industries (+17.5%). Amongst these, Sembcorp and SATS stand out as having the clearest catalysts: Sembcorp benefits from higher energy prices and its utilities transition story, while SATS may gain from redirected global trade flows as the Middle Eastern disruption reshapes logistics patterns.
In the banking sector, DBS retains the strongest growth narrative, supported by its digital leadership, record assets under management of $488 billion, and clear dividend guidance. UOB, trading at the lowest price-to-book multiple among the three banks at around 1.2 times, may appeal to value-oriented investors seeking a margin of safety.
Core and Satellite Portfolio Picks
Given the current environment of heightened geopolitical risk, elevated oil prices and persistent market volatility, a core-satellite approach remains prudent for investors constructing a Singapore-focused equity portfolio.
Core Holdings (Stability, Income, Lower Volatility)
DBS Group (D05.SI) forms the natural anchor of any Singapore equity portfolio. With a forward price-to-earnings of 13.4, a forward dividend yield of approximately 5.5%, and a return on equity of 15.9%, DBS combines income generation with earnings resilience. Its commitment to maintaining the capital return dividend through FY2027 provides a visible income floor.
OCBC (O39.SI) complements DBS as a value-oriented banking pick, trading at a price-to-book of 1.5 times — below DBS's premium multiple of 2.3 times — and offering a forward yield of around 4.1%. Its strong wealth management platform and conservative credit stance offer defensiveness in uncertain times.
Singapore Exchange (S68.SI) benefited from the surge in trading volumes during the week, rising 5.1%. As a pure-play beneficiary of market volatility and the structural growth in ETF and derivatives trading, SGX offers a non-cyclical exposure within the financial services sector. Its return on equity of 30.1% is among the highest in the STI.
Singapore Telecommunications (Z74.SI) serves as a defensive income anchor, with its telecommunications infrastructure providing recession-resistant cash flows and a forward yield of approximately 2.6%. At $4.96, it trades close to its 52-week high, reflecting the market's recognition of its defensive qualities.
Satellite Holdings (Higher Growth, Higher Risk)
Seatrium (5E2.SI) is positioned as a direct beneficiary of elevated oil prices and the global energy transition. The company reported a doubling of its net profit for FY2025 on the back of the global energy boom, underscoring the favourable operating environment. Its forward price-to-earnings of 14.5 and analyst target of $2.69 (13.6% upside) make it an attractive play on the energy upcycle. The stock's low beta of 0.32 suggests it is less volatile than the broader market, though investors should note it does not yet pay a meaningful dividend.
Sembcorp Industries (U96.SI) offers exposure to both the energy price rally and the clean energy transition. With a forward price-to-earnings of 9.5 — among the lowest in the STI — and an analyst target of $6.78 (17.5% upside), it represents value within the utilities space. Its forward dividend yield of 4.3% adds an income component. Notably, DBS Research has reiterated a "Buy" call with a target price of $7.30, highlighting that Sembcorp's Singapore operations are largely protected by long-term contracts with cost pass-throughs and active hedging, meaning the company is well-positioned to benefit from higher gas prices and volatility without bearing the full brunt of input cost inflation. Lim and Tan Securities has separately issued a bullish short-term technical outlook on the stock, identifying near-term resistance at $6.04 and support at $5.60.
SATS (S58.SI) stands to benefit from the restructuring of global logistics networks as the Middle Eastern disruption reshapes air cargo and ground handling flows. With a forward price-to-earnings of 16.7 and analyst target of $4.40 (21.7% upside), it is positioned as a recovery play on the aviation sector's long-term growth.
Keppel (BN4.SI) rounds out the satellite portfolio as a diversified industrial play with exposure to infrastructure, data centres and asset management. At a forward price-to-earnings of 19.5 and with 8.4% upside to analyst targets, Keppel offers balanced exposure to multiple secular growth themes.
Volume Trends and Market Sentiment
The Excel data reveals a notable decline in trading volumes between 9 March and 13 March for most stocks. The SPDR STI ETF saw its volume drop by 85% over the period, from 6.6 million shares to just under 1 million. This suggests that the initial wave of panic selling on 9 March gave way to a more cautious, lower-volume recovery as traders adopted a wait-and-see posture. However, certain stocks bucked the trend: ST Engineering's volume rose 20%, Hongkong Land's rose 13%, and DFI Retail's rose 4%, indicating active accumulation in these names.
Outlook for the Coming Weeks
The trajectory of the STI in the coming weeks hinges almost entirely on the resolution — or prolongation — of the Strait of Hormuz crisis. If the waterway reopens swiftly through diplomatic or military means, the oil price premium will unwind rapidly, relieving pressure on inflation-sensitive stocks and potentially triggering a relief rally across the broader index. In this scenario, the banks, REITs and consumer stocks would stand to benefit disproportionately.
If the blockade persists, however, the IEA has warned that supply losses are set to increase further, and Goldman Sachs has raised the probability of a US recession this year to 25%. In such a scenario, defensive names — the banks for their dividends, Singtel for its resilience, and SGX for its volatility beneficiary status — would likely outperform. Energy-linked names such as Seatrium and Sembcorp could continue to grind higher, while the broader market may face renewed selling pressure.
Singapore's position as a financial hub, with its strong currency, disciplined fiscal policy and well-regulated banking system, continues to make it an attractive market for investors seeking shelter from global turbulence. The Excel data for the week of 9 to 13 March 2026 confirms this thesis: even in the face of a major geopolitical shock and the largest oil supply disruption in history, the STI's constituents largely held their ground, and several posted impressive gains.
Investors would do well to maintain a balanced portfolio anchored by the core holdings identified above, while selectively adding satellite positions in names with clear catalysts and attractive valuations. The war has introduced a new layer of uncertainty to global markets, but for disciplined investors, uncertainty often breeds opportunity.
If you want to do your own analysis, you can get the data I used for the price of a cup of kopi! Here:
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