STI Holds Near Record as JPMorgan Lifts Bull-Case Target, While REITs Languish Near 52-Week Lows
Market overview and STI ETF performance
The Straits Times Index closed the trading week at 5,744.00, rising 24.00 points, or 0.42 per cent, from the previous close of 5,720.00. That final session left the benchmark near the top of its 52-week range of 4,182.00 to 5,774.00. The last day's gain, however, masked a softer week overall: across the four trading days from Aug 11 to Aug 14, the index eased from 5,754.00 to 5,744.00, a decline of 0.17 per cent. The data shows that 14 constituents advanced on the latest day against 11 decliners, with five counters unchanged. The average change across all 30 stocks in the index was +0.72 per cent.
The SPDR STI ETF, which tracks the 30 constituents, closed at S$5.774, up from a previous close of S$5.754. The fund's 52-week range of S$4.23 to S$5.898 places its latest price near the upper end of that band.
The week's dominant market commentary came from JPMorgan. The Business Times reported on Aug 12 that JPMorgan analysts, including Khoi Vu, wrote in a note that the STI could climb to 7,000 over the next 12 months in a bull case scenario, a level that would represent a 22 per cent upside from the Aug 11 close. The note said a "goldilocks economic backdrop" should continue to underpin earnings per share growth.
The sessions themselves were mixed. The Business Times reported that Singapore shares ended higher on Tuesday with the STI up 1 per cent, then fell 0.6 per cent on Wednesday as bank losses weighed on the index. On Thursday, the index closed flattish, down 0.01 per cent, with City Developments leading the gainers, according to both The Business Times and the Singapore Business Review. The Friday bounce recorded in the data therefore delivered the best single-day performance of the week.
Sector-by-sector analysis
The data groups the 30 constituents into nine sectors, and the average daily changes on the latest day show a clear split between a handful of standout performers and a broadly sluggish majority. Consumer Cyclical, which contains just one stock, led with a rise of 6.40 per cent. Communication Services followed at +4.71 per cent, also a single-stock sector, as did Utilities at +4.29 per cent. Industrials, with six stocks, averaged +0.93 per cent. Financial Services, with four stocks, averaged +0.51 per cent, while Consumer Defensive averaged +0.27 per cent across three stocks and Technology +0.12 per cent for its one constituent. Energy was flat at 0.00 per cent. The 12 real estate stocks — the largest sector grouping in the index — were the laggards, averaging a decline of 0.20 per cent.
The three local banks remained the market's engines of turnover. DBS Group Holdings was the most traded counter on the latest day at about S$383.5 million, followed by Singtel at about S$253.1 million, OCBC at about S$229.9 million, Singapore Technologies Engineering at about S$145.9 million and United Overseas Bank at about S$137.4 million. DBS, at S$75.53, sat within 5 per cent of its 52-week high of S$77.97, as did OCBC at S$31.79 against a high of S$31.86.
The banking sector's news flow was shaped by the second-quarter reporting season that concluded in the prior week. The Straits Times reported that analysts said DBS and OCBC shares had hit fresh highs but could climb further, while asset quality concerns at UOB could affect near-term profitability. The Edge Singapore reported that analysts favour DBS and OCBC while UOB's asset quality concerns have resurfaced. The Business Times reported that Citi and OCBC downgraded UOB after its results, even as RHB upgraded the stock on valuation grounds. The same report noted that wealth management was a standout performer for UOB, with income up 16 per cent year on year in the first half and assets under management hitting a record S$204 billion, although lower fee income guidance weighed on the outlook.
The real estate cluster had the most difficult week. Six REITs — CapitaLand Ascendas REIT, Frasers Centrepoint Trust, Keppel DC REIT, Mapletree Industrial Trust, Mapletree Logistics Trust and Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust — traded within 5 per cent of their 52-week lows when the data was captured. Mapletree Logistics Trust fell 0.85 per cent on the day to S$1.17 and 2.50 per cent across the week, against a 52-week low of S$1.14. CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust lost 0.82 per cent on the day and 3.19 per cent for the week to S$2.43. CapitaLand Ascendas REIT fell 2.79 per cent over the week to S$2.44, only two cents above its 52-week low of S$2.42. The same counters dominate the dividend yield list: Mapletree Industrial Trust yields 6.60 per cent, CapitaLand Ascendas REIT 6.39 per cent, Mapletree Logistics Trust 6.24 per cent, Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust 6.17 per cent and Frasers Logistics & Commercial Trust 6.11 per cent.
The parent company of several CapitaLand REITs reported during the week. The Business Times said CapitaLand Investment posted a 14 per cent rise in first-half net profit to S$327 million on higher fee income, and separately reported that the group plans to restructure its portfolio and recycle up to S$9 billion in capital.
The industrial and utilities names provided the week's strongest large-cap moves. Sembcorp Industries rose 4.29 per cent on the latest day to S$5.83, on 2.4 times its average volume, after announcing a higher interim dividend of 11 cents. The Straits Times reported that the company expects a stronger second half, while The Business Times noted that headline first-half net profit fell 72 per cent to S$150 million, hit by one-off acquisition costs related to the Alinta deal. The Edge Singapore reported that underlying net profit fell 25 per cent to S$369 million before exceptional items, currency effects and an energy derivative loss. The company was quoted in The Business Times saying it is "well-positioned to capture structural demand growth from data centres and AI-related infrastructure".
Singapore Technologies Engineering rose 5.79 per cent on the day to S$10.96 on 2.5 times average volume, making it the strongest weekly performer in the index with a gain of 7.45 per cent from S$10.20 to S$10.96. The company was among the counters flagged in The Business Times' "stocks to watch" list during the week.
Top gainers and losers analysis with reasons
The five largest gainers on the latest day were Genting Singapore at S$0.67, up 6.40 per cent; Singapore Technologies Engineering at S$10.96, up 5.79 per cent; Singapore Telecommunications at S$4.45, up 4.71 per cent; Sembcorp Industries at S$5.83, up 4.29 per cent; and Hongkong Land Holdings at S$8.67, up 3.58 per cent. Genting Singapore also led the weekly gainers with a rise of 5.56 per cent from S$0.63, though the figures do not show any company announcement from the casino operator to explain the move. Its trading volume, at 4.7 times the average, was the heaviest spike in the index.
The five largest losers on the latest day were UOL Group at S$9.28, down 2.83 per cent; Yangzijiang Shipbuilding at S$4.62, down 1.07 per cent; City Developments at S$8.12, down 0.98 per cent; Mapletree Logistics Trust at S$1.17, down 0.85 per cent; and CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust at S$2.43, down 0.82 per cent.
UOL's slide was notable because it came on 3.3 times average volume and capped a difficult week for the developer, which fell 6.55 per cent from S$9.93 to S$9.28. By contrast, Hongkong Land rose 4.21 per cent over the week to S$8.67, within 5 per cent of its 52-week high of S$9.12, and City Developments gained 3.84 per cent for the week despite the Friday dip. The Singapore Business Review noted that UOL and Wilmar International were at the foot of the index on Thursday. Wilmar, which reported results during the week, fell 5.30 per cent over the four sessions to S$3.75, while Singtel rounded out the weekly top five with a 3.25 per cent gain to S$4.45.
Volume and momentum analysis
The data flags five counters with unusually heavy trading volume on the latest day. Genting Singapore traded at 4.7 times its average volume, UOL at 3.3 times, Singapore Technologies Engineering at 2.5 times, Sembcorp Industries at 2.4 times and City Developments at 2.2 times. The volume concentration in Genting, ST Engineering and Sembcorp aligns with the day's top movers, suggesting institutional interest was focused on a narrow set of names rather than spread across the market.
Turnover tells a similar story. The five most traded counters — DBS, Singtel, OCBC, ST Engineering and UOB — accounted for more than S$1.1 billion in combined value on the day out of the figures captured in the data. Singtel's second-place turnover of about S$253.1 million was notable given that its 4.71 per cent gain made it the third-largest advancer. The data also shows four counters trading within 5 per cent of their 52-week highs: DBS, Hongkong Land, OCBC and Singapore Exchange, the last at S$25.24 against a high of S$25.39.
At the other end of the momentum spectrum, the data identifies two counters trading below their 50-day moving averages but above their 200-day moving averages: Singapore Airlines, at S$7.05 against a 50-day average of S$7.47, and Wilmar International, at S$3.75 against a 50-day average of S$3.76. This price relationship is a technical condition that some market watchers track, and it reflects the recent pullback in both names relative to their medium-term trend.
Impact of macroeconomic or geopolitical factors
The macro backdrop for the week was broadly supportive, with an upgrade to Singapore's growth outlook. The Straits Times reported that the government lifted its 2026 growth forecast to 4.5 per cent to 5.5 per cent, citing a stronger-than-expected boom in artificial intelligence-related demand. The same publication reported that Singapore's key exports rose 27.4 per cent in the second quarter, helped by AI-driven demand for semiconductors and electronic devices that has cushioned the economy against the effects of the Iran war and United States trade tariffs.
The tariff picture remained a source of caution. CNA reported on the 12.5 per cent US tariff on Singapore exports to the US imposed on the basis of forced labour in the supply chain, and noted that disruptions to global trade and energy markets from the Iran war have cast a pall over global economic prospects. The Business Times also reported that the White House said transshipped goods had lost up to US$26 billion in tariff revenue, a reminder of the ongoing friction in global trade. A separate CNA report described how Singapore manufacturers are adjusting to higher US tariffs while holding off on major production shifts.
These cross-currents help explain why JPMorgan framed its bull case for the STI around a "goldilocks" backdrop of solid growth and contained inflation, and why The Business Times reported that Singapore equities have notched multiple record highs in 2026 as heavyweight banking stocks draw investors seeking shelter from geopolitical tensions and volatility surrounding the AI trade. The exchange itself is a direct beneficiary of that market activity: SGX Group reported a record FY2026, and The Edge Singapore reported that the exchange has reaffirmed that market momentum is expected to remain strong, with analysts seeing potential for a higher payout if no major merger or acquisition intervenes.
What the data shows about stability and volatility
The data includes beta figures, which measure how much a stock tends to move relative to the broader market, with a beta below 1 indicating lower sensitivity. The Singapore banks and several large industrials show very low betas: OCBC at 0.20, Singapore Technologies Engineering at 0.15, Sembcorp at 0.06, Singtel at 0.25 and DBS at 0.29. UOB's beta of 0.38 and Hongkong Land's 0.35 are also on the low side. At the higher end of the scale, Yangzijiang Shipbuilding has a beta of 0.87 and Keppel DC REIT 0.84, with Venture Corporation at 0.60.
The revenue growth figures in the data point to where expansion has been fastest. Yangzijiang's revenue grew 36.2 per cent, Keppel Ltd grew 24.6 per cent, Frasers Centrepoint Trust grew 21.9 per cent, Singapore Exchange grew 19.6 per cent, Wilmar grew 17.2 per cent and OCBC grew 16.9 per cent. By contrast, the REITs that sit near their 52-week lows — including Mapletree Industrial Trust at 6.60 per cent yield and CapitaLand Ascendas REIT at 6.39 per cent — offer relatively high dividend yields but are trading less than 5 per cent above their lows, a pattern that shows income-focused investors have been willing to bid for yield while the underlying prices have drifted.
The valuation figures in the data are worth reading alongside the price action. Hongkong Land had the lowest price-to-earnings ratio in the index at 8.2 times, followed by City Developments at 8.9 times, Yangzijiang at 9.8 times, Keppel DC REIT at 11.6 times and Thai Beverage at 11.8 times. The market capitalisation figures show the scale disparity within the index: DBS at S$214.8 billion is more than ten times the size of Sembcorp at S$10.4 billion, and the three banks plus Singtel account for the bulk of index weight.
The stability picture, then, is one of divergence. The banks and several industrial names are trading near record or 52-week highs with low betas and heavy turnover, while the 12 real estate counters, sporting high dividend yields and low betas of their own, are clustered near their lows. The data does not indicate which pattern will persist; it merely describes the range of behaviour within the index.
What to watch in the coming week
Several scheduled items and corporate events will occupy the market in the week ahead. Thai Beverage reported a 1.8 per cent dip in revenue to 254 billion baht for the nine months ending Jun 30, according to The Business Times, and the market will continue to digest that result. CapitaLand Investment's restructuring plan, including the recycling of up to S$9 billion, is likely to draw further attention as details emerge. SGX Group's commentary on market momentum and any signals on its payout policy will be watched after the record FY2026 result, as The Edge Singapore reported. Sembcorp's higher interim dividend of 11 cents is scheduled to be paid on Sept 4, and the cluster of REITs sitting near their 52-week lows will be in focus as the reporting season progresses.
The continuing commentary from analysts on the banks' second-quarter results — covering DBS and OCBC's momentum and the resurfacing of asset quality concerns at UOB — will also shape sentiment. On the macro and trade front, developments on US tariffs and transshipment rules, which The Business Times reported cost the White House up to US$26 billion in tariff revenue, remain live risks for an export-dependent market. None of these items points to a particular direction for prices; they are simply the events that will supply the market with information in the sessions ahead.
References
[1] The Business Times; STI could hit 7,000 in bull case over next 12 months: JPMorgan; 12 Aug 2026
[2] The Business Times; Singapore shares end higher on Tuesday; STI up 1%; 11 Aug 2026
[3] The Business Times; Singapore shares fall as STI sheds 0.6% on bank losses; 12 Aug 2026
[4] The Business Times; Singapore shares close flattish amid mixed regional showing; 13 Aug 2026
[5] Singapore Business Review; Daily Markets Briefing: STI down 0.01%; Top stock is City Developments; 14 Aug 2026
[6] The Business Times; SGX eyes single-stock ETFs, tie-ups across markets for growth amid multi-asset exchange push; 12 Aug 2026
[7] The Edge Singapore; SGX's record FY2026 carries into the new year; analysts see higher payout if no M&A; 14 Aug 2026
[8] The Straits Times; S'pore banks Q2 earnings: DBS, OCBC shares could go higher; asset quality concerns resurface at UOB; 11 Aug 2026
[9] The Edge Singapore; Analysts favour DBS, OCBC, while UOB's asset quality concerns resurface; 14 Aug 2026
[10] The Business Times; Citi, OCBC downgrade UOB post-Q2 results; RHB upgrades on valuation; 11 Aug 2026
[11] The Business Times; CapitaLand Investment H1 profit up 14% at S$327 million on higher fee income; 13 Aug 2026
[12] The Business Times; CapitaLand Investment to restructure portfolio, recycle up to S$9 billion; 13 Aug 2026
[13] The Straits Times; Sembcorp lifts interim dividend to 11 cents on stronger second-half outlook; 13 Aug 2026
[14] The Business Times; Sembcorp raises interim dividend despite 72% H1 profit slide to S$150 million on Alinta deal costs; 13 Aug 2026
[15] The Edge Singapore; Sembcorp reports $369 million 1HFY2026 earnings, 25% y-o-y drop before exceptional items, FX and energy derivative loss; 13 Aug 2026
[16] The Business Times; Stocks to watch: Singtel, ST Engineering, Wilmar, CapitaLand Investment, Sembcorp, UOL and more; 13 Aug 2026
[17] The Straits Times; Singapore upgrades 2026 growth forecast to 4.5% to 5.5% on stronger AI boom; 11 Aug 2026
[18] The Straits Times; S'pore upgrades key exports forecast for 2026; 11 Aug 2026
[19] CNA; Commentary: Complacency is the hidden risk in Singapore's success; 12 Aug 2026
[20] The Business Times; White House says transshipped goods lost up to US$26 billion tariffs revenue; 14 Aug 2026
Disclaimer
Not financial advice. The author is not licensed to provide investment advice in Singapore. This is general commentary and personal opinion based on publicly available information, and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Figures are compiled from public sources and may be incomplete, delayed or wrong — verify against the company's own filings and SGX before relying on anything here. The author may hold positions in the securities mentioned. Do your own research, and consider speaking to a licensed financial adviser before making any investment decision.
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